OverviewTierCountersSynergyBansPredictor

Marvel Rivals Methodology

Where the Marvel Rivals meta data comes from, how the tier lists, counters and team-up stats are computed, and what is — and isn't — live yet.

No black boxes. No "trust us". Real numbers, sample sizes shown, nothing dressed up.

TL;DR

  • The tier list, counters, team-up synergies and ban rates are direct aggregates over recent 6v6 matches — what actually happened, not a model's opinion.
  • A calibrated draft win predictor (like the ones already live for Dota 2 and Deadlock) is still in training and deliberately not exposed yet — on the current data it would be noise, and we'd rather show nothing than a fake number.
  • Marvel Rivals is new and our match collection is young: the samples behind these pages are still small. Every page shows its sample size so you can weigh it yourself.

What's live, and what's coming

Live now — meta aggregates
Tier list, counters, team-up synergies and ban rates, computed straight from recent matches and refreshed as new games land.
In training — draft predictor
A draft-based win-probability model. It ships only once it clears a real held-out accuracy bar on enough data — the same standard the Dota 2 and Deadlock models had to meet before going live.

Where the data comes from

Public 6v6 match data is collected via the community marvelrivalsapi.com and rolled up into the snapshots these pages read. Each snapshot carries a generated_at timestamp and refreshes as new matches accumulate.

Heroes covered
40
The current roster, across the Vanguard / Duelist / Strategist roles.
Skill brackets
4
Low / Mid / High / Top, split by match skill score so you can read the meta at your own level.
Refresh
Rolling
Snapshots regenerate from the newest matches; the timestamp on each page tells you how fresh it is.

How each page is computed

  • Tier list = each hero's win rate and pick rate over recent matches, also sliced into the four skill brackets above.
  • Counters = a hero's win rate against each opposing hero (head-to-head, antisymmetric: if A beats B 56%, B beats A 44%).
  • Team-up synergies = the win rate of two heroes on the same team (symmetric: the duo's joint win rate).
  • Ban rates = how often each hero is removed in the draft phase, over matches that had a ban phase.
  • Every hero and pairing shows its sample size, so a number backed by 4 games never looks like one backed by 400.

Read these as early data

We'd rather be upfront than oversell. The collection is young, so today's thresholds are low and sample sizes are modest — treat these as directional, not gospel. Concretely, from the most recent snapshot:

319
matches behind the tier list
~79
matches per skill bracket
285
matches behind ban rates

As the dataset grows we'll raise the minimum-sample thresholds and the numbers will steady. This box exists so you always know which stage we're at.

Known limitations

  • No predictor yet. These pages describe what has happened in recent matches. They are not a trained model and don't predict the outcome of a specific draft.
  • Small, early samples. Win rates can swing as more matches land, especially in the per-bracket views and for rarely-played heroes.
  • Young game, shifting meta. Marvel Rivals patches and new heroes can move the meta faster than the data settles; fresh heroes sit near 50% until games accumulate.
  • Not financial advice. This is an analytical / educational tool. The win rates here are not betting recommendations, and we do not endorse or facilitate sports betting.

Why bother, if it's just match data?

  • Because it's honest match data, computed consistently — head-to-head and duo win rates, sliced by skill bracket, every number carrying its sample size.
  • And because it's the on-ramp to the same pipeline behind Batru's other games: once the draft predictor clears its accuracy bar, it lands right here, on top of this data.