TierCountersSynergyBansSkinsPredictor

Marvel Rivals Methodology

Where the Marvel Rivals meta data comes from, how the tier lists, counters and team-up stats are computed, and what is — and isn't — live yet.

No black boxes. No "trust us". Real numbers, sample sizes shown, nothing dressed up.

TL;DR

  • The tier list, counters, team-up synergies and ban rates are direct aggregates over recent 6v6 matches — what actually happened, not a model's opinion.
  • The draft win predictor is live — pick both teams for a comp-based 6v6 win probability. It's calibrated (held-out ECE 0.014: a 60% call really wins ~60%), side-neutral (mirror comps read 50%), and honest about its ceiling: draft alone doesn't decide a hero-shooter, so most matchups sit near even.
  • Everything is built on the current season only, so it reflects the live meta — not stale mixes of old patches. Every page shows its sample size, and rarer hero pairings still carry smaller samples, so you can weigh it yourself.

What's live, and what's coming

Live now — meta aggregates
Tier list, counters, team-up synergies and ban rates, computed straight from recent matches and refreshed as new games land.
Live now — draft predictor
A draft-based win-probability model over current-season (Season 9.5) 6v6 matches. Calibrated on held-out data (ECE 0.014 on ~16.3K matches). Draft-only accuracy is skill-dependent — near coin-flip in low-skill games, up to ~70% in high-skill games where the comp decides more. It's side-neutral, so mirror comps read exactly 50%.

Where the data comes from

Public 6v6 match data is collected via the community marvelrivalsapi.com and rolled up into the snapshots these pages read. Each snapshot carries a generated_at timestamp and refreshes as new matches accumulate.

Heroes covered
54
The current roster, across the Vanguard / Duelist / Strategist roles.
Skill brackets
4
Low / Mid / High / Top, split by match skill score so you can read the meta at your own level.
Refresh
Rolling
Snapshots regenerate from the newest matches; the timestamp on each page tells you how fresh it is.

How each page is computed

  • Tier list = each hero's win rate and pick rate over recent matches, also sliced into the four skill brackets above.
  • Counters = a hero's win rate against each opposing hero (head-to-head, antisymmetric: if A beats B 56%, B beats A 44%).
  • Team-up synergies = the win rate of two heroes on the same team (symmetric: the duo's joint win rate).
  • Ban rates = how often each hero is removed in the draft phase, over matches that had a ban phase.
  • Every hero and pairing shows its sample size, so a number backed by 4 games never looks like one backed by 400.

Read these as early data

We'd rather be upfront than oversell. The collection is young, so today's thresholds are low and sample sizes are modest — treat these as directional, not gospel. Concretely, from the most recent snapshot:

806,437
matches behind the tier list
~199,520
matches per skill bracket
434,823
matches behind ban rates

As the dataset grows we'll raise the minimum-sample thresholds and the numbers will steady. This box exists so you always know which stage we're at.

Known limitations

  • No predictor yet. These pages describe what has happened in recent matches. They are not a trained model and don't predict the outcome of a specific draft.
  • Small, early samples. Win rates can swing as more matches land, especially in the per-bracket views and for rarely-played heroes.
  • Young game, shifting meta. Marvel Rivals patches and new heroes can move the meta faster than the data settles; fresh heroes sit near 50% until games accumulate.
  • Not financial advice. This is an analytical / educational tool. The win rates here are not betting recommendations, and we do not endorse or facilitate sports betting.

Why bother, if it's just match data?

  • Because it's honest match data, computed consistently — head-to-head and duo win rates, sliced by skill bracket, every number carrying its sample size.
  • And because it's the on-ramp to the same pipeline behind Batru's other games: once the draft predictor clears its calibration bar, it lands right here, on top of this data.

Frequently asked questions

Is there a win predictor for Marvel Rivals?
Yes — Batru runs a public, weekly-retrained Marvel Rivals draft win predictor. Give it two 6v6 team compositions and it returns a calibrated win probability (ECE 0.014 on ~16.3K held-out current-season matches): a stated 60% wins about 60% of the time.
How accurate is the Marvel Rivals win predictor?
69.0% accuracy on held-out Season 9.5 matches, from team composition alone — before the match starts. The more meaningful property is calibration (ECE 0.014): the stated probability matches observed reality. Composition is only part of the outcome; execution decides the rest.
How is the tier list data collected?
From recent competitive 6v6 matches gathered by Batru's data pipeline, refreshed continuously through the current season. Win rate, pick rate, ban rate and team-up synergies all come from the same match sample.
Is the Marvel Rivals predictor free to use?
Yes — the predictor, tier lists, counters, synergies and ban rates are open to everyone. Analysis only, not betting advice.

The Marvel Rivals model behind these calibration numbers was promoted Jul 18, 2026 — this date only moves when a new checkpoint beats the champion, never on a routine re-run.