Deadlock Win Predictor

How does the Deadlock 6v6 win predictor work?

Pick up to 6 heroes each for Amber Hand and Sapphire Flame to get a calibrated pre-game win probability; Live mode adds game time, souls lead, kills, towers, and Mid-Boss differential. The predictor is a Transformer trained on 4,942,801 real Deadlock matches and retrained as the meta evolves.

How accurate is the Deadlock win predictor?

We publish probability calibration rather than a headline hit rate: across 578,714 held-out matches, the pre-game draft model achieves an Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of 0.006 (and 0.018 in Live mode) — when it predicts 60%, that team wins about 60% of the time.

How does the Deadlock pick assistant rank hero recommendations?

For any open slot on your chosen side (Amber Hand or Sapphire Flame), the assistant evaluates every remaining hero with all other picks held constant and ranks candidates by Δ percentage-point win-rate gain above the slot average.

What is the difference between Pre-Game Draft mode and Live In-Game mode?

Draft mode predicts win probability from hero lineups alone (including partial drafts as you fill slots). Live mode requires a complete 12-hero board and incorporates match minute (0–120), souls lead, kills lead, objective tower lead, and Mid-Boss count.

Why are brand-new Deadlock heroes excluded from predictions at release?

Heroes that have just entered the roster are held out until sufficient ranked match samples accumulate in the training dataset, ensuring the model never fabricates probabilities for unmeasured heroes.

Do I need an account or API key to use the Deadlock win predictor?

No — the web tool is 100% free with no account or API key required, and AI assistants can query the same calibrated model via our Model Context Protocol (MCP) server at batru.gg/mcp.

More detail: how the model is built and evaluated · hero tier list · MCP server for AI assistants