Head-to-head Dota 2 7.41e win rate from ranked matches.
In Dota 2 7.41e, Phantom Lancer wins the Arc Warden vs Phantom Lancer matchup: Phantom Lancer beats Arc Warden in 52.73% of 880 ranked matches.
Seeing an Arc Warden picked often invites a Phantom Lancer response for a reason. Arc Warden relies on focused, single-target damage and control, but Phantom Lancer's entire kit is designed to counter that approach. His illusions constantly soak up Spark Wraith charges, making it impossible to land them on the real hero. Flux gets easily dispelled by Doppelganger or absorbed by a nearby illusion, and Magnetic Field provides little protection from a melee hero who can simply walk inside the bubble. It feels like every one of Arc Warden's primary tools has a built-in, direct answer from Phantom Lancer's spellbook.
In-game, this means Arc Warden has a very brief window to dominate his lane before Phantom Lancer gets his core items. Once PL has a way to generate illusions and close distance, he can aggressively hunt either the real Arc or the Tempest Double. The constant pressure from illusions and their mana drain makes it incredibly difficult for Arc Warden to farm or defend towers safely. His usual item builds often lack enough area damage to clear the swarm, forcing him into a defensive, reactive position for the rest of the match while trying to avoid getting caught out.
How the matchup shifts across skill brackets — Arc Warden's win rate against Phantom Lancer in recent ranked matches, split by average match rank. Ranks with too few recent matches are omitted. These rows use the last 30 days of quality-filtered ranked matches, all patches in that span combined — a wider window than the patch-scoped count above, so the per-rank match totals can exceed it.
| Rank | Arc Warden win rate | Matches |
|---|---|---|
| Herald & Guardian | 44.73% | 427 |
| Crusader & Archon | 48.73% | 907 |
| Legend & Ancient | 47.44% | 508 |
| Divine & Immortal | 49.21% | 189 |
Arc Warden's win rate against Phantom Lancer in each recent balance patch — whether this matchup is trending up or down. Patches without enough matches are omitted.
| Patch | Arc Warden win rate | Change | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.41e | 47.27% | ▲ +2.6pp | 880 |
| 7.41d | 44.63% | ▲ +0.3pp | 62,708 |
| 7.41c | 44.32% | ▲ +1.8pp | 26,211 |
| 7.41b | 42.49% | — | 26,279 |
Move this data into a draft
Arc Warden starts on Radiant and Phantom Lancer on Dire. Add the other eight picks to see whether this head-to-head edge survives the full draft.
Data updated Aug 11, 2026.