How each Dota 2 hero's team fares by game length: win rate in ranked games that end before 34 minutes vs after 47 minutes, for all 127 heroes — from Batru's calibrated duration model.
Medusa is the most late-game Dota 2 hero: in ranked games that end after 47 minutes, teams with Medusa win 58.3%, versus 38.0% in games that end before 34 minutes (+20.3 pp); 27% of Medusa games last 47+ minutes. Broodmother leans furthest the other way: 57.0% in games under 34 minutes, 45.4% after 47, with 38% of its games ending before 34 minutes.
Biggest win-rate gain from games under 34 min to games of 47+ min.
Biggest win-rate drop from games under 34 min to games of 47+ min.
Win rate of the hero's team in ranked games that ended in each length band (model estimate, hero vs an average team). Last column: share of that hero's games ending in the shortest / longest band. Click a column to sort.
| Curve | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38.0% | 46.5% | 54.3% | 58.3% | +20.3 | 22% / 27% | ||
| 2 | 38.5% | 48.0% | 55.0% | 56.7% | +18.2 | 23% / 26% | ||
| 3 | 37.8% | 44.2% | 50.6% | 54.9% | +17.1 | 25% / 25% | ||
| 4 | 42.5% | 46.0% | 52.6% | 58.4% | +15.9 | 29% / 23% | ||
| 5 | 40.5% | 47.2% | 52.7% | 55.1% | +14.6 | 24% / 25% | ||
| 6 | 40.4% | 46.3% | 50.4% | 52.2% | +11.8 | 23% / 27% | ||
| 7 | 39.7% | 46.3% | 49.8% | 50.3% | +10.6 | 24% / 26% | ||
| 8 | 42.4% | 48.6% | 52.0% | 52.9% | +10.6 | 26% / 23% | ||
| 9 | 43.4% | 49.6% | 53.2% | 53.8% | +10.5 | 26% / 23% | ||
| 10 | 46.7% | 51.4% | 55.8% | 56.8% | +10.2 | 25% / 24% | ||
| 11 | 40.1% | 45.0% | 48.5% | 50.2% | +10.1 | 25% / 25% | ||
| 12 | 46.2% | 54.0% | 57.8% | 56.0% | +9.8 | 20% / 29% | ||
| 13 | 42.8% | 48.7% | 51.9% | 52.0% | +9.3 | 21% / 29% | ||
| 14 | 44.4% | 51.6% | 54.6% | 53.2% | +8.8 | 26% / 23% | ||
| 15 | 40.1% | 45.6% | 48.4% | 48.8% | +8.7 | 26% / 24% | ||
| 16 | 42.6% | 45.4% | 48.5% | 51.3% | +8.7 | 25% / 24% | ||
| 17 | 43.5% | 48.4% | 51.5% | 52.0% | +8.6 | 23% / 26% | ||
| 18 | 45.4% | 48.4% | 51.3% | 53.3% | +8.0 | 27% / 23% | ||
| 19 | 44.6% | 50.3% | 53.3% | 52.5% | +7.9 | 26% / 24% | ||
| 20 | 45.2% | 50.4% | 52.8% | 52.9% | +7.7 | 25% / 24% | ||
| 21 | 46.6% | 51.0% | 53.7% | 54.1% | +7.5 | 24% / 25% | ||
| 22 | 41.9% | 46.3% | 48.6% | 49.3% | +7.4 | 28% / 23% | ||
| 23 | 46.1% | 49.9% | 52.7% | 53.4% | +7.3 | 21% / 28% | ||
| 24 | 44.4% | 47.2% | 49.7% | 51.5% | +7.1 | 29% / 20% | ||
| 25 | 44.8% | 50.1% | 52.4% | 51.9% | +7.1 | 27% / 26% | ||
| 26 | 47.5% | 49.6% | 52.5% | 54.4% | +6.9 | 28% / 23% | ||
| 27 | 43.0% | 43.8% | 46.2% | 49.6% | +6.5 | 26% / 24% | ||
| 28 | 44.6% | 47.0% | 49.3% | 50.9% | +6.3 | 24% / 27% | ||
| 29 | 45.3% | 49.6% | 51.6% | 51.3% | +5.9 | 26% / 24% | ||
| 30 | 46.9% | 48.8% | 50.9% | 52.5% | +5.6 | 25% / 26% | ||
| 31 | 45.9% | 49.3% | 51.2% | 51.4% | +5.5 | 25% / 24% | ||
| 32 | 44.2% | 47.0% | 48.9% | 49.6% | +5.4 | 22% / 27% | ||
| 33 | 43.7% | 46.1% | 47.7% | 48.9% | +5.3 | 25% / 25% | ||
| 34 | 48.2% | 50.1% | 51.9% | 53.0% | +4.8 | 23% / 26% | ||
| 35 | 47.1% | 49.4% | 51.0% | 51.6% | +4.4 | 25% / 24% | ||
| 36 | 47.9% | 50.7% | 52.3% | 52.3% | +4.3 | 20% / 30% | ||
| 37 | 46.5% | 45.4% | 46.6% | 50.7% | +4.2 | 23% / 27% | ||
| 38 | 48.4% | 52.1% | 53.3% | 52.4% | +4.0 | 25% / 25% | ||
| 39 | 47.8% | 51.3% | 52.4% | 51.8% | +4.0 | 25% / 25% | ||
| 40 | 44.5% | 45.5% | 46.9% | 48.3% | +3.8 | 37% / 18% | ||
| 41 | 46.7% | 48.9% | 50.0% | 49.9% | +3.2 | 24% / 25% | ||
| 42 | 46.6% | 48.0% | 48.8% | 49.4% | +2.8 | 29% / 22% | ||
| 43 | 46.2% | 47.5% | 48.1% | 48.5% | +2.3 | 25% / 25% | ||
| 44 | 48.0% | 51.2% | 51.9% | 50.3% | +2.3 | 24% / 26% | ||
| 45 | 47.9% | 49.8% | 50.4% | 49.9% | +2.0 | 26% / 24% | ||
| 46 | 48.9% | 50.0% | 50.6% | 50.6% | +1.7 | 24% / 25% | ||
| 47 | 45.4% | 44.6% | 45.1% | 47.1% | +1.7 | 26% / 24% | ||
| 48 | 50.1% | 54.6% | 54.2% | 51.6% | +1.6 | 25% / 23% | ||
| 49 | 48.2% | 50.2% | 50.4% | 49.6% | +1.5 | 22% / 27% | ||
| 50 | 50.7% | 52.5% | 53.3% | 52.0% | +1.4 | 22% / 27% | ||
| 51 | 47.8% | 48.6% | 48.9% | 49.0% | +1.1 | 24% / 26% | ||
| 52 | 48.8% | 47.0% | 47.4% | 49.7% | +0.9 | 24% / 26% | ||
| 53 | 44.9% | 45.4% | 45.1% | 45.6% | +0.7 | 25% / 25% | ||
| 54 | 49.2% | 50.6% | 50.4% | 49.3% | +0.2 | 29% / 22% | ||
| 55 | 48.8% | 48.5% | 48.5% | 48.7% | −0.1 | 24% / 26% | ||
| 56 | 49.2% | 50.1% | 49.8% | 49.2% | −0.1 | 27% / 23% | ||
| 57 | 51.6% | 52.7% | 52.5% | 51.4% | −0.1 | 26% / 22% | ||
| 58 | 51.2% | 50.2% | 50.0% | 50.9% | −0.2 | 25% / 25% | ||
| 59 | 51.2% | 52.2% | 51.9% | 51.0% | −0.2 | 28% / 23% | ||
| 60 | 49.7% | 47.6% | 47.5% | 49.4% | −0.3 | 22% / 28% | ||
| 61 | 48.1% | 48.7% | 48.4% | 47.8% | −0.3 | 28% / 22% | ||
| 62 | 51.3% | 53.0% | 52.7% | 50.8% | −0.5 | 28% / 21% | ||
| 63 | 51.8% | 53.2% | 52.9% | 51.2% | −0.6 | 23% / 26% | ||
| 64 | 51.8% | 52.2% | 52.1% | 51.2% | −0.6 | 24% / 25% | ||
| 65 | 51.3% | 50.9% | 50.5% | 50.5% | −0.8 | 27% / 23% | ||
| 66 | 49.0% | 47.8% | 47.1% | 47.9% | −1.1 | 25% / 25% | ||
| 67 | 49.0% | 48.1% | 47.6% | 48.0% | −1.1 | 23% / 26% | ||
| 68 | 47.9% | 44.7% | 44.4% | 46.8% | −1.1 | 28% / 23% | ||
| 69 | 51.5% | 52.5% | 52.0% | 50.2% | −1.3 | 22% / 28% | ||
| 70 | 53.0% | 53.4% | 52.6% | 51.6% | −1.3 | 23% / 27% | ||
| 71 | 49.0% | 49.0% | 48.4% | 47.6% | −1.4 | 27% / 24% | ||
| 72 | 50.8% | 50.1% | 49.5% | 49.3% | −1.5 | 29% / 22% | ||
| 73 | 52.0% | 52.8% | 52.2% | 50.4% | −1.6 | 26% / 24% | ||
| 74 | 50.7% | 48.8% | 48.2% | 48.9% | −1.8 | 25% / 24% | ||
| 75 | 51.2% | 50.7% | 50.0% | 49.3% | −1.9 | 24% / 25% | ||
| 76 | 50.7% | 52.3% | 51.1% | 48.7% | −1.9 | 29% / 23% | ||
| 77 | 50.1% | 48.5% | 47.8% | 48.0% | −2.0 | 23% / 26% | ||
| 78 | 51.5% | 49.2% | 48.4% | 49.4% | −2.1 | 23% / 26% | ||
| 79 | 47.2% | 41.7% | 40.7% | 44.9% | −2.4 | 25% / 25% | ||
| 80 | 53.5% | 53.6% | 52.9% | 51.1% | −2.4 | 26% / 23% | ||
| 81 | 50.1% | 48.6% | 47.8% | 47.6% | −2.5 | 27% / 23% | ||
| 82 | 51.9% | 50.3% | 49.2% | 49.2% | −2.7 | 22% / 27% | ||
| 83 | 53.3% | 52.7% | 51.8% | 50.4% | −2.9 | 23% / 26% | ||
| 84 | 50.7% | 49.3% | 48.1% | 47.8% | −2.9 | 27% / 23% | ||
| 85 | 49.3% | 46.2% | 45.4% | 46.4% | −2.9 | 25% / 25% | ||
| 86 | 48.2% | 46.1% | 44.7% | 45.3% | −3.0 | 26% / 24% | ||
| 87 | 52.2% | 52.0% | 50.8% | 49.2% | −3.0 | 28% / 22% | ||
| 88 | 49.3% | 47.9% | 46.7% | 45.9% | −3.3 | 29% / 22% | ||
| 89 | 53.6% | 52.3% | 51.1% | 50.2% | −3.4 | 24% / 25% | ||
| 90 | 53.6% | 52.6% | 51.3% | 50.0% | −3.5 | 24% / 25% | ||
| 91 | 52.5% | 51.1% | 49.8% | 48.9% | −3.5 | 22% / 27% | ||
| 92 | 49.6% | 45.5% | 44.5% | 46.0% | −3.6 | 29% / 23% | ||
| 93 | 53.7% | 53.0% | 51.0% | 50.0% | −3.7 | 27% / 22% | ||
| 94 | 53.0% | 51.2% | 50.0% | 49.2% | −3.8 | 24% / 24% | ||
| 95 | 53.3% | 51.4% | 50.3% | 49.5% | −3.8 | 36% / 16% | ||
| 96 | 52.8% | 49.4% | 47.6% | 48.8% | −4.0 | 23% / 27% | ||
| 97 | 53.1% | 49.6% | 48.0% | 48.6% | −4.5 | 23% / 25% | ||
| 98 | 54.2% | 52.1% | 50.6% | 49.7% | −4.5 | 25% / 24% | ||
| 99 | 56.0% | 56.0% | 54.0% | 51.4% | −4.6 | 26% / 24% | ||
| 100 | 52.1% | 49.3% | 47.8% | 47.3% | −4.7 | 33% / 19% | ||
| 101 | 52.7% | 50.0% | 48.4% | 48.0% | −4.7 | 25% / 25% | ||
| 102 | 54.2% | 51.3% | 49.7% | 49.4% | −4.8 | 24% / 24% | ||
| 103 | 53.0% | 49.5% | 47.7% | 48.1% | −4.9 | 23% / 28% | ||
| 104 | 54.1% | 53.5% | 51.3% | 49.1% | −5.0 | 23% / 27% | ||
| 105 | 53.4% | 50.4% | 48.4% | 48.3% | −5.1 | 23% / 26% | ||
| 106 | 51.5% | 48.3% | 46.4% | 46.4% | −5.1 | 22% / 27% | ||
| 107 | 52.2% | 48.5% | 46.7% | 47.1% | −5.1 | 23% / 26% | ||
| 108 | 52.4% | 49.5% | 47.7% | 47.1% | −5.3 | 29% / 22% | ||
| 109 | 54.2% | 52.5% | 50.6% | 48.8% | −5.3 | 21% / 31% | ||
| 110 | 55.1% | 52.5% | 50.5% | 49.4% | −5.7 | 27% / 22% | ||
| 111 | 53.8% | 50.9% | 48.6% | 47.9% | −5.9 | 29% / 21% | ||
| 112 | 53.9% | 52.7% | 50.1% | 47.9% | −6.1 | 26% / 23% | ||
| 113 | 54.8% | 51.6% | 49.4% | 48.5% | −6.3 | 27% / 23% | ||
| 114 | 54.7% | 50.7% | 48.8% | 48.4% | −6.3 | 35% / 18% | ||
| 115 | 50.9% | 46.0% | 44.2% | 44.6% | −6.3 | 28% / 22% | ||
| 116 | 54.9% | 52.1% | 49.8% | 48.4% | −6.6 | 24% / 25% | ||
| 117 | 55.9% | 54.6% | 51.8% | 49.2% | −6.7 | 24% / 24% | ||
| 118 | 55.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | 47.9% | −7.1 | 25% / 25% | ||
| 119 | 54.0% | 49.2% | 46.2% | 46.2% | −7.8 | 21% / 28% | ||
| 120 | 55.1% | 51.0% | 48.4% | 47.3% | −7.8 | 28% / 22% | ||
| 121 | 55.7% | 49.6% | 47.0% | 47.2% | −8.5 | 27% / 24% | ||
| 122 | 55.3% | 49.4% | 46.6% | 46.8% | −8.5 | 26% / 24% | ||
| 123 | 57.0% | 51.3% | 48.0% | 47.1% | −9.9 | 25% / 24% | ||
| 124 | 55.5% | 48.4% | 44.8% | 44.7% | −10.8 | 26% / 25% | ||
| 125 | 58.6% | 50.9% | 47.1% | 47.7% | −10.9 | 22% / 29% | ||
| 126 | 55.9% | 45.3% | 42.6% | 44.4% | −11.5 | 36% / 19% | ||
| 127 | 57.0% | 45.6% | 43.4% | 45.4% | −11.6 | 38% / 17% |
Same-team pairs, all 8,001 combinations scored the same way. The lists mostly combine the strongest solo heroes — read them as "these two together lean this way", not as a separate synergy claim.
These are conditional win rates: among ranked games that ended at a given length, how often the hero's team won. They describe those games, not a strategy. Game length is a result of the match, not a choice — the team that is ahead usually ends sooner — so a high late-game number does not mean playing for a long game wins it.
Always read a band's win rate together with how often games land there: across all games the four bands split <34 min 24% · 34–40 24% · 40–47 26% · 47+ min 25%, and most single heroes shift that mix only a few points.
Model: Batru's Dota 2 duration model (v_dur_20261005), a transformer trained on recent ranked matches from the last two major patches. Each hero is scored alone, the other nine slots unknown, once on Radiant and once on Dire, and the two are averaged so the Radiant-side advantage cancels out. Length bands are training-set quartiles: <34 min, 34–40, 40–47, 47+ min. Late edge = win rate in the longest band minus win rate in the shortest.
Checked on 3,636,241 held-out matches the model never saw: split into five equal groups by predicted late edge, the actual edge rose steadily from −39.5 pp to +24.8 pp, within about 1 pp of the prediction in every group. Per-band calibration error (ECE) is 0.0008–0.0025.
Move this data into a draft
Add the picks you know in the draft predictor to get a calibrated win probability for that exact draft, plus how its win rate shifts with game length. Partial drafts work too.
Model estimates from the Batru Dota 2 duration model (v_dur_20261005); not live match statistics. Data updated Oct 5, 2026.