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Dota2 后期英雄与前期英雄

每个英雄所在队伍的胜率如何随对局时长变化:34 分钟内结束的天梯对局 vs 超过 47 分钟的对局,覆盖全部 127 名英雄,来自 Batru 校准过的时长模型。

美杜莎是最偏后期的 Dota2 英雄:在超过 47 分钟才结束的天梯对局中,有美杜莎的一方胜率 58.3%,而在 34 分钟内结束的对局中为 38.0%(+20.3 个百分点);美杜莎的对局有 27% 打到 47 分钟以上。最偏前期的是育母蜘蛛:34 分钟内结束的对局胜率 57.0%,47 分钟以上为 45.4%;其对局有 38% 在 34 分钟内结束。

查看你的阵容的时长胜率曲线 →

后期英雄排行

从 34 分钟内结束的对局到 47 分钟以上的对局,胜率上升最多。

  1. 美杜莎美杜莎38.0% → 58.3% +20.3
  2. 虚空假面虚空假面38.5% → 56.7% +18.2
  3. 风暴之灵风暴之灵37.8% → 54.9% +17.1
  4. 独行德鲁伊独行德鲁伊42.5% → 58.4% +15.9
  5. 兽兽40.5% → 55.1% +14.6
  6. 末日使者末日使者40.4% → 52.2% +11.8
  7. 修补匠修补匠39.7% → 50.3% +10.6
  8. 炼金术士炼金术士42.4% → 52.9% +10.6
  9. 半人马战行者半人马战行者43.4% → 53.8% +10.5
  10. 幻影长矛手幻影长矛手46.7% → 56.8% +10.2

前期英雄排行

从 34 分钟内结束的对局到 47 分钟以上的对局,胜率下降最多。

  1. 育母蜘蛛育母蜘蛛57.0% → 45.4% −11.6
  2. 狼人狼人55.9% → 44.4% −11.5
  3. 狙击手狙击手58.6% → 47.7% −10.9
  4. 死亡先知死亡先知55.5% → 44.7% −10.8
  5. 不朽尸王不朽尸王57.0% → 47.1% −9.9
  6. 光之守卫光之守卫55.3% → 46.8% −8.5
  7. 帕格纳帕格纳55.7% → 47.2% −8.5
  8. 戴泽戴泽55.1% → 47.3% −7.8
  9. 冥界亚龙冥界亚龙54.0% → 46.2% −7.8
  10. 术士术士55.0% → 47.9% −7.1

全部 127 名英雄按对局时长

英雄所在队伍在各时长区间结束的天梯对局中的胜率(模型估计,英雄 vs 平均水平队伍)。最后一列:该英雄对局落在最短 / 最长区间的比例。点击列标题可排序。

曲线
1美杜莎38.0%46.5%54.3%58.3%+20.322% / 27%
2虚空假面38.5%48.0%55.0%56.7%+18.223% / 26%
3风暴之灵37.8%44.2%50.6%54.9%+17.125% / 25%
4独行德鲁伊42.5%46.0%52.6%58.4%+15.929% / 23%
5兽40.5%47.2%52.7%55.1%+14.624% / 25%
6末日使者40.4%46.3%50.4%52.2%+11.823% / 27%
7修补匠39.7%46.3%49.8%50.3%+10.624% / 26%
8炼金术士42.4%48.6%52.0%52.9%+10.626% / 23%
9半人马战行者43.4%49.6%53.2%53.8%+10.526% / 23%
10幻影长矛手46.7%51.4%55.8%56.8%+10.225% / 24%
11暗影恶魔40.1%45.0%48.5%50.2%+10.125% / 25%
12幽鬼46.2%54.0%57.8%56.0%+9.820% / 29%
13沙王42.8%48.7%51.9%52.0%+9.321% / 29%
14幻影刺客44.4%51.6%54.6%53.2%+8.826% / 23%
15伐木机40.1%45.6%48.4%48.8%+8.726% / 24%
16帕克42.6%45.4%48.5%51.3%+8.725% / 24%
17莱恩43.5%48.4%51.5%52.0%+8.623% / 26%
18拉席克45.4%48.4%51.3%53.3%+8.027% / 23%
19娜迦海妖44.6%50.3%53.3%52.5%+7.926% / 24%
20斯拉达45.2%50.4%52.8%52.9%+7.725% / 24%
21米拉娜46.6%51.0%53.7%54.1%+7.524% / 25%
22蝙蝠骑士41.9%46.3%48.6%49.3%+7.428% / 23%
23宙斯46.1%49.9%52.7%53.4%+7.321% / 28%
24变体精灵44.4%47.2%49.7%51.5%+7.129% / 20%
25上古巨神44.8%50.1%52.4%51.9%+7.127% / 26%
26天穹守望者47.5%49.6%52.5%54.4%+6.928% / 23%
27齐天大圣43.0%43.8%46.2%49.6%+6.526% / 24%
28琼英碧灵44.6%47.0%49.3%50.9%+6.324% / 27%
29黑暗贤者45.3%49.6%51.6%51.3%+5.926% / 24%
30谜团46.9%48.8%50.9%52.5%+5.625% / 26%
31祸乱之源45.9%49.3%51.2%51.4%+5.525% / 24%
32痛苦女王44.2%47.0%48.9%49.6%+5.422% / 27%
33玛尔斯43.7%46.1%47.7%48.9%+5.325% / 25%
34沉默术士48.2%50.1%51.9%53.0%+4.823% / 26%
35敌法师47.1%49.4%51.0%51.6%+4.425% / 24%
36远古冰魄47.9%50.7%52.3%52.3%+4.320% / 30%
37编织者46.5%45.4%46.6%50.7%+4.223% / 27%
38天涯墨客48.4%52.1%53.3%52.4%+4.025% / 25%
39潮汐猎人47.8%51.3%52.4%51.8%+4.025% / 25%
40陈44.5%45.5%46.9%48.3%+3.837% / 18%
41百戏大王46.7%48.9%50.0%49.9%+3.224% / 25%
42朗戈46.6%48.0%48.8%49.4%+2.829% / 22%
43石鳞剑士46.2%47.5%48.1%48.5%+2.325% / 25%
44祈求者48.0%51.2%51.9%50.3%+2.324% / 26%
45大地之灵47.9%49.8%50.4%49.9%+2.026% / 24%
46电炎绝手48.9%50.0%50.6%50.6%+1.724% / 25%
47矮人直升机45.4%44.6%45.1%47.1%+1.726% / 24%
48噬魂鬼50.1%54.6%54.2%51.6%+1.625% / 23%
49钢背兽48.2%50.2%50.4%49.6%+1.522% / 27%
50巫妖50.7%52.5%53.3%52.0%+1.422% / 27%
51邪影芳灵47.8%48.6%48.9%49.0%+1.124% / 26%
52杰奇洛48.8%47.0%47.4%49.7%+0.924% / 26%
53小小44.9%45.4%45.1%45.6%+0.725% / 25%
54神谕者49.2%50.6%50.4%49.3%+0.229% / 22%
55发条技师48.8%48.5%48.5%48.7%−0.124% / 26%
56虚无之灵49.2%50.1%49.8%49.2%−0.127% / 23%
57主宰51.6%52.7%52.5%51.4%−0.126% / 22%
58斯拉克51.2%50.2%50.0%50.9%−0.225% / 25%
59巨魔战将51.2%52.2%51.9%51.0%−0.228% / 23%
60卓尔游侠49.7%47.6%47.5%49.4%−0.322% / 28%
61巨牙海民48.1%48.7%48.4%47.8%−0.328% / 22%
62赏金猎人51.3%53.0%52.7%50.8%−0.528% / 21%
63司夜刺客51.8%53.2%52.9%51.2%−0.623% / 26%
64水晶室女51.8%52.2%52.1%51.2%−0.624% / 25%
65龙骑士51.3%50.9%50.5%50.5%−0.827% / 23%
66熊战士49.0%47.8%47.1%47.9%−1.125% / 25%
67森海飞霞49.0%48.1%47.6%48.0%−1.123% / 26%
68圣堂刺客47.9%44.7%44.4%46.8%−1.128% / 23%
69斧王51.5%52.5%52.0%50.2%−1.322% / 28%
70力丸53.0%53.4%52.6%51.6%−1.323% / 27%
71魅惑魔女49.0%49.0%48.4%47.6%−1.427% / 24%
72全能骑士50.8%50.1%49.5%49.3%−1.529% / 22%
73殁境神蚀者52.0%52.8%52.2%50.4%−1.626% / 24%
74马格纳斯50.7%48.8%48.2%48.9%−1.825% / 24%
75干扰者51.2%50.7%50.0%49.3%−1.924% / 25%
76酒仙50.7%52.3%51.1%48.7%−1.929% / 23%
77莉娜50.1%48.5%47.8%48.0%−2.023% / 26%
78孽主51.5%49.2%48.4%49.4%−2.123% / 26%
79自然先知47.2%41.7%40.7%44.9%−2.425% / 25%
80复仇之魂53.5%53.6%52.9%51.1%−2.426% / 23%
81树精卫士50.1%48.6%47.8%47.6%−2.527% / 23%
82天怒法师51.9%50.3%49.2%49.2%−2.722% / 27%
83巫医53.3%52.7%51.8%50.4%−2.923% / 26%
84灰烬之灵50.7%49.3%48.1%47.8%−2.927% / 23%
85影魔49.3%46.2%45.4%46.4%−2.925% / 25%
86凯48.2%46.1%44.7%45.3%−3.026% / 24%
87亚巴顿52.2%52.0%50.8%49.2%−3.028% / 22%
88恐怖利刃49.3%47.9%46.7%45.9%−3.329% / 22%
89裂魂人53.6%52.3%51.1%50.2%−3.424% / 25%
90暗影萨满53.6%52.6%51.3%50.0%−3.524% / 25%
91撼地者52.5%51.1%49.8%48.9%−3.522% / 27%
92兽王49.6%45.5%44.5%46.0%−3.629% / 23%
93暗夜魔王53.7%53.0%51.0%50.0%−3.727% / 22%
94食人魔魔法师53.0%51.2%50.0%49.2%−3.824% / 24%
95米波53.3%51.4%50.3%49.5%−3.836% / 16%
96克林克兹52.8%49.4%47.6%48.8%−4.023% / 27%
97拉比克53.1%49.6%48.0%48.6%−4.523% / 25%
98瘟疫法师54.2%52.1%50.6%49.7%−4.525% / 24%
99冥魂大帝56.0%56.0%54.0%51.4%−4.626% / 24%
100艾欧52.1%49.3%47.8%47.3%−4.733% / 19%
101寒冬飞龙52.7%50.0%48.4%48.0%−4.725% / 25%
102帕吉54.2%51.3%49.7%49.4%−4.824% / 24%
103昆卡53.0%49.5%47.7%48.1%−4.923% / 28%
104血魔54.1%53.5%51.3%49.1%−5.023% / 27%
105雷泽53.4%50.4%48.4%48.3%−5.123% / 26%
106剧毒术士51.5%48.3%46.4%46.4%−5.122% / 27%
107风行者52.2%48.5%46.7%47.1%−5.123% / 26%
108玛西52.4%49.5%47.7%47.1%−5.329% / 22%
109工程师54.2%52.5%50.6%48.8%−5.321% / 31%
110破晓辰星55.1%52.5%50.5%49.4%−5.727% / 22%
111露娜53.8%50.9%48.6%47.9%−5.929% / 21%
112斯温53.9%52.7%50.1%47.9%−6.126% / 23%
113混沌骑士54.8%51.6%49.4%48.5%−6.327% / 23%
114维萨吉54.7%50.7%48.8%48.4%−6.335% / 18%
115哈斯卡50.9%46.0%44.2%44.6%−6.328% / 22%
116凤凰54.9%52.1%49.8%48.4%−6.624% / 25%
117军团指挥官55.9%54.6%51.8%49.2%−6.724% / 24%
118术士55.0%50.0%47.6%47.9%−7.125% / 25%
119冥界亚龙54.0%49.2%46.2%46.2%−7.821% / 28%
120戴泽55.1%51.0%48.4%47.3%−7.828% / 22%
121帕格纳55.7%49.6%47.0%47.2%−8.527% / 24%
122光之守卫55.3%49.4%46.6%46.8%−8.526% / 24%
123不朽尸王57.0%51.3%48.0%47.1%−9.925% / 24%
124死亡先知55.5%48.4%44.8%44.7%−10.826% / 25%
125狙击手58.6%50.9%47.1%47.7%−10.922% / 29%
126狼人55.9%45.3%42.6%44.4%−11.536% / 19%
127育母蜘蛛57.0%45.6%43.4%45.4%−11.638% / 17%

后期与前期双英雄组合

同队双英雄组合,全部 8,001 种组合按同样方法计算。榜单大多由单英雄最强者组合而成——请理解为「这两个英雄一起时的倾向」,而不是另一种配合结论。

最偏后期的组合

  1. 炼金术士 + 美杜莎26.3% → 64.9% +38.6
  2. 虚空假面 + 美杜莎26.9% → 63.6% +36.6
  3. 风暴之灵 + 美杜莎28.2% → 63.8% +35.6
  4. 虚空假面 + 炼金术士29.9% → 64.4% +34.5
  5. 风暴之灵 + 虚空假面26.8% → 61.1% +34.3
  6. 美杜莎 + 兽28.7% → 63.0% +34.3
  7. 独行德鲁伊 + 美杜莎30.2% → 64.4% +34.2
  8. 风暴之灵 + 独行德鲁伊30.7% → 63.7% +33.1
  9. 莱恩 + 美杜莎29.7% → 61.8% +32.1
  10. 虚空假面 + 兽29.6% → 61.7% +32.1

最偏前期的组合

  1. 狙击手 + 不朽尸王66.5% → 44.1% −22.4
  2. 狼人 + 不朽尸王61.8% → 40.0% −21.8
  3. 狙击手 + 帕格纳65.2% → 43.8% −21.4
  4. 狙击手 + 死亡先知62.5% → 42.2% −20.3
  5. 狙击手 + 戴泽64.0% → 43.9% −20.2
  6. 育母蜘蛛 + 不朽尸王63.2% → 43.0% −20.2
  7. 狼人 + 拉比克61.7% → 41.6% −20.2
  8. 狙击手 + 狼人61.6% → 41.6% −20.0
  9. 戴泽 + 不朽尸王63.3% → 43.6% −19.7
  10. 育母蜘蛛 + 工程师64.1% → 44.4% −19.7

如何解读这些数字

这些是条件胜率:在恰好于某个时长结束的天梯对局中,英雄所在队伍赢了多少。它描述的是这类对局,而不是打法建议。对局时长是比赛的结果而不是可选择的:领先的一方通常会更早结束比赛,所以后期胜率高并不意味着拖长比赛就能赢。

区间胜率一定要和对局落在该区间的比例一起看:全部对局在四个区间的分布为 <34 分钟 24% · 34–40 24% · 40–47 26% · 47+ 分钟 25%,多数单个英雄只会让这个分布变化几个百分点。

模型:Batru Dota2 时长模型(v_dur_20261005),在最近两个大版本的天梯对局上训练的 Transformer。每个英雄单独放入一方、其余九个位置未知,分别在天辉和夜魇各算一次再取平均,以抵消天辉方的固有优势。时长区间取训练集四分位:<34 分钟、34–40、40–47、47+ 分钟。后期优势 = 最长区间胜率 − 最短区间胜率。

已在模型从未见过的 3,636,241 场留出对局上检验:按预测的后期优势均分为五组,实际后期优势从 −39.5 个百分点单调上升到 +24.8 个百分点,每组与预测相差约 1 个百分点以内。各区间校准误差(ECE)为 0.0008–0.0025。

常见问题

4 个问题
Dota2 哪些英雄是最强的后期英雄?
按 Batru 时长模型,在长局中胜率提升最多的英雄是:美杜莎(+20.3个百分点)、虚空假面(+18.2个百分点)、风暴之灵(+17.1个百分点)、独行德鲁伊(+15.9个百分点)、兽(+14.6个百分点)。美杜莎:47 分钟以上结束的对局胜率 58.3%,34 分钟内结束的对局为 38.0%;美杜莎的对局有 27% 打到 47 分钟以上。
Dota2 哪些英雄前期最强?
相对长局、在短局中表现最好的英雄是:育母蜘蛛(−11.6个百分点)、狼人(−11.5个百分点)、狙击手(−10.9个百分点)、死亡先知(−10.8个百分点)、不朽尸王(−9.9个百分点)。育母蜘蛛:34 分钟内结束的对局胜率 57.0%,47 分钟以上为 45.4%;育母蜘蛛的对局有 38% 在 34 分钟内结束。
选了后期英雄就应该拖后期吗?
不是——这些数字并不这么说。它们是条件胜率:在恰好于某个时长结束的对局中,英雄所在队伍赢了多少。对局时长是比赛的结果而不是手段:领先的一方通常会更早结束比赛。请用它来了解英雄的特点,而不是当作拖时间的计划。
后期优势是怎么算的?
英雄所在队伍在 47 分钟以上对局的胜率,减去在 34 分钟内对局的胜率;来自 Batru 时长模型,英雄单独放入一方、两侧取平均。在 3,636,241 场留出对局上,模型判为最偏后期的那组对局实际后期优势为 +24.8 个百分点,最偏前期的一组为 −39.5 个百分点。

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Batru Dota2 时长模型(v_dur_20261005)的模型估计,不是实时比赛统计。数据更新于 2026年10月5日。